Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."